MARLON LYNN ARCHITECT · TIMING THE MARKETThe decision to build and the decision to borrow are not the same day.
A building is designed, permitted and priced long before it is financed and built. That gap is usually 18 to 30 months. What will rates, costs and the economy look like at the far end of it, and what would it take to be ready when they arrive?
Today’s conditions are not the ones you build in
Design and permits take time
Drawings, engineering and agency reviews run on their own schedule. Little of that time can be bought back later, and none of it depends on today’s interest rate.
Financing closes late
Construction loans are priced and closed near the start of construction, after permits and a contractor price. That is the moment the rate and the cost index matter.
Forecasts are a range
Each chart shows history, a center-line forecast taken from published sources, and a shaded cone for how far the outcome could reasonably fall. Where no one publishes a forecast, it says ESTIMATE.
The question this page leaves with you: if you started design now, where would your financing and construction land on these charts, and would you rather be ready then or just beginning?
Set a start date and phase lengths
Pick a design start and how long each phase might take. The markers on every chart move to your dates. The charts themselves do not change. Is there a start date where your timeline meets better conditions?
How to use this
- Choose a design start date.
- Adjust the phase lengths, or keep the typical values.
- Press Update.
- Markers 1 to 4 and the shaded financing band move on every chart and on the schedule. Each chart shows its forecast value, and range, when construction starts.
- Try another date and compare.
Phase lengths vary widely by project type, size and jurisdiction. Projections are published forecasts or labeled estimates, not guarantees.
Rates, costs and the economy, 15 years back and 5 ahead
Shaded cones show the published high and low forecasts where they exist, and a volatility-based range where they do not. Sources are listed under each chart.
Your timeline, phase by phase
Generic, typical sequence. A common order of steps for a Florida commercial project, not a schedule for your project. Agencies, review times and overlaps vary by site and jurisdiction. Bars move with your start date, the phase lengths below and your building size.
Key dates
Phase lengths
Design splits into schematic design, design development and construction documents. The site permit is submitted halfway through design; the building and fire permit follows once the site permit is issued. Financing must close before construction starts, so construction begins once permits are issued, a contractor price is in hand and the loan has closed.
Do you want a customized schedule and a budget for your project? Tell us your goals and we can help.
The page above is generic. Answer a few short questions, one at a time. Some answers adjust the timeline and chart markers above as you go. Your timeline settings are included automatically.
Answers are saved as you go. Press Enter to continue.
Thank you.
Marlon will review your project and your timeline settings and reply to you personally, usually within one business day.
Nothing here is a proposal or advice until we have talked about your project.
Timing the market for commercial construction in Florida
An owner who plans an office, warehouse, light industrial or retail building in Florida usually spends 18 to 30 months on design, engineering, permitting, bidding and loan closing before construction starts. Interest rates and construction costs at the end of that period set the real budget. This page shows 15 years of history and 5 years of published forecasts for rates, costs and the economy, and lets you move a design start date to see where your financing and construction would land.
Frequently asked questions
What does timing the market mean for a commercial building project?
It means starting design and permitting now so that financing and construction land at a better point in the rate and cost cycle. Design, engineering and agency reviews usually take 18 to 30 months before a construction loan closes, so the conditions that matter are the ones at the end of that gap, not today’s.
How long does it take to design and permit a commercial building in Florida?
For a typical office, warehouse or light industrial building, design and engineering often run 6 to 12 months and permitting across the city or county, the water management district and the fire marshal often runs 6 to 15 months, with permitting overlapping the second half of design. Bidding and loan closing add 2 to 6 months. Actual times vary by size, site and jurisdiction.
When is a construction loan rate actually set?
Construction loans are usually priced and closed near the start of construction, after permits are issued and a contractor price is in hand. That is the moment interest rates and construction cost indexes matter most to the project budget.
Can I start design before financing is lined up?
Yes. Many owners fund design and permitting with equity so the project is ready to bid and finance when conditions improve. Financing must close before construction starts, so being permit-ready shortens the time between a good rate window and breaking ground.
Where do the forecasts on this page come from?
Each chart uses 15 years of public history (Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA and Florida EDR data) and a center-line projection taken from published forecasts such as the Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, CBO, survey consensus and bank forecasts. The shaded cone shows the published high and low range; where no one publishes a forecast the projection is labeled ESTIMATE. The page is updated quarterly.
Is this advice for my specific project?
No. This is a generic presentation for illustration only. Answer the questions at the bottom of the page and Marlon Lynn will review your project and reply personally, usually within one business day.